Gold price prediction today: Gold prices may trade sideways with some support from festive season buying, though the demand remains weak, says Vedika Narvekar, Research Analyst – Commodities & Currencies, Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers. Here’s what she has to say:Gold fell to a 52-week low last week, with spot down 3.04% WoW to $3,874.62 and MCX gold down 2.49% to Rs 1,38,485 per 10 gm. October fell 6.80%, the worst October since 2008. Higher yields, a firm dollar, oil-led inflation fears and a tech sell-off that forced investors to liquidate bullion all weighed on the metal.The midterm results have changed the mood this week. Democrats are projected to win both the House and the Senate, which markets read as lowering the odds of a deficit-expanding agenda. The 10-year Treasury yield fell six basis points to 4.90%, the dollar weakened as much as 0.4%, its biggest fall in two months, and gold rose as much as 0.9% to above $3,960.Oil is the other driver. Brent fell below $110 as the White House signalled more time for diplomacy, and the US and Iran are reviewing fresh proposals from mediators. However, limited US strikes near Hormuz show the risk remains. Gold and oil have mostly moved in opposite directions, so lower oil helps gold by easing rate-hike fears.Demand trends give gold a firmer base. WGC’s Q3 report shows ETFs added 211 tonnes after a 47-tonne outflow in Q2, driven by fiscal and inflation worries. Central banks bought 321 tonnes in Q3 (675 tonnes YTD, up 6%), and total YTD demand of 3,881 tonnes almost matches the 2025 record. Jewellery fell 17% and bar and coin demand fell 19% on high prices.
Focus this week:
Final midterm counts, Jobs data, US-Iran talks and oil, Treasury yields and the dollar and the ETF flows which looks at where a price floor may form.
Gold Price Outlook
Gold is likely to trade in a $3,860-4,100 range this week, which is roughly Rs 1,36,500-1,45,500 on MCX. The weaker dollar, lower yields, steady central bank buying and dip buying near $3,900 should support prices.Moreover, the festive and wedding season demand is slow but should provide some support. Nevertheless, gains look limited by a likely Fed hike in December, still-high oil and the risk of ETF selling. A close above $4,000 is needed to restore a neutral view, or else would see more selling pressure.
Technical Levels
Gold (Spot) CMP: $3,980/oz
- Support: $3,860 / $3,800
- Resistance: $4,100 / $4,180
MCX Gold CMP: Rs 1,40,800
- Support: Rs 1,36,600, / Rs 1,34,500
- Resistance: Rs 1,42,500/ Rs 1,48,000
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